In brief : 'There is no prospect - even in principle - of a sustainable pattern of development unless we devise a socially acceptable way of stabilising the human population.'
The take home message is that there is no prospect - even in principle - of a sustainable pattern of development unless we devise a socially acceptable way of stabilising the human population. The growth in the human population has been the main factor increasing the impact of the environmental effects of human activity.
I'm pleased to see that there is now one State Premier who has recognised that this is an issue. Most are still in the gung-ho for growth mode, and I haven't seen any obvious sign that the issue of the need for a stable population has impinged on Her Majesty's Government at the Commonwealth level.
Most of the problems identified in Australia : State of the Environment 1996 clearly have solutions, if we have we the political will to implement them. Above all else, we have a better opportunity than most people in the world to live sustainably, if that is a goal to which we set our minds.
In looking at responses to environmental problems, failures have tended to be piecemeal efforts treating symptoms rather than underlying causes. For example, a restraint on the clearing of small areas of bushland could be considered as treating a symptom, whereas having a population policy could be considered as treating the underlying cause.
It is clear that the pressures in urban areas are in direct proportion to the population. Whether it's the pressure to clear bushland for housing, the volume of waste production, or the volume of sewage, all are more or less in direct proportion to the number of people.
However it's not just the expansion of the size of our cities, and the direct pressure we put on the environment - the water, air and so on in cities - that is a problem. One of the greatest pressures on rural land is the need to keep stoking up production of exportable products to pay for the total consumption of imports by a largely urban population.
So in that sense, it is not just your water and your sewage and your motor vehicle exhausts that's affecting the environment directly here in Sydney or in other cities.
Your wish to have imported motor vehicles or video recorders or compact disc players or Nike shoes are all putting pressure on our rural land to produce from areas that really should be retired from production, to continue clearing land in Queensland at a rate of about half a million hectares a year, to expand agricultural production in areas which clearly cannot sustain any level of economic activity.
The number of births each year in Australia exceeds the number of deaths by about 120,000, because of past demographic behaviour, which means that the number of adult women potentially at risk of pregnancy is still increasing. The debate should therefore not be reduced to the simplistic one of seeing population solely in terms of immigration.
If we are to be a civilised country in control of our destiny, we need to have a strategy for stabilising the human population.
The pressure for growth is a symptom of a more insidious problem : the belief that the economy is the be-all and end-all, that almost anything can be sacrificed if the result is greater wealth. There is a Cree Indian saying : 'Only when the last tree has died, the last river has been poisoned and the last fish has been caught will we realise that we cannot eat money'.
Ten years ago it was estimated that humans were then sequestering about 40 per cent of the photosynthetic product of the Earth, directly or indirectly, for their uses. Even an economist could see that there are not too many more doubling periods left if one species is already appropriating nearly half of the photosynthetic product of the planet.
We need to recognise that, as Paul Ehrlich put it, 'The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the natural ecosystem'. As the Brundtland Commission said, 'Unless our future economic planning is ecologically rational, we will be unable to maintain living standards let alone improve them'.
We are all engaged in the act of creating our future. As Bob Carr said here this morning, not to decide about something like population is to decide. Not to choose to have a population policy is to choose not to have a policy, to allow unlimited expansion.
The future is not determined - the Australia of next century will be shaped by our decisions and our actions and those of our fellow Australians. Your choices and mine will determine what sort of future we have. There is not just a need to stabilise the population, it is an imperative. There is no prospect of a civilised life style, no prospect of a sustainable ecosystem, unless we do that.
We are not passengers on spaceship Earth, we are the crew. And it's about time we took our responsibilities seriously.
OTHER SPEAKERS - HIGHLIGHTS :
On the question of whether per capita incomes rise or fall as population
expands, the evidence is remarkably inconclusive. The safest conclusion is
that net per capita incomes can go either way. So the concept of an
economically optimal population size is not now generally regarded as useful.
There is thus considerable margin for public choice between alternative
scenarios for population growth, without damaging consequences for economic
performance. In other words, the economic issues on this subject do not
provide a severe straight jacket. The ecological and environmental concerns
arguably do so to a much greater extent.
Unemployment is not a problem that is soluble by the use of restrictive
immigration policy to reduce the supply of labour or, conversely, by
attempts to use immigration to stimulate faster economic growth.
Economic inequality is fuelled by urban growth, because the inflation in the
urban property markets benefits existing wealth holders at the expense of
the new entrants. It also intensifies the fiscal crisis of the State,
because of the costs of infrastructure - providing the water and sewerage
systems, the energy supply networks, and so forth. The costs of such
infrastructure tend to rise more rapidly than the capacity to fund them
through taxation or user charges.
The continuing attempt to emulate countries with impressive aggregate GDP
growth statistics misunderstands - and may undermine - the international
comparative advantage that Australia actually enjoys, but is in the process
of losing. This is not just a matter of personal preferences - it is also
good international economics. Developing industries geared to Australia's
social and environmental comparative advantages is a potentially powerful
base for more successful export performance to the Asia-Pacific region.
Size itself is not important, in economic terms - many industries today use
technologies that are not dependent upon massive production runs to achieve
cost effectiveness.
So a stable population need not impede the achievement of economic
competitiveness. Refocussing public policy from growth to stability and
balance need not be threatening to the living standards of the Australian
people. Indeed, Australia has an outstanding opportunity to be an
international exemplar in showing that balance can replace growth as the
central guiding concept for the future of the nation.
Is stability uneconomic ? No, it's our best way forward in a challenging
world.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics' projects that - based on annual net
migration of 100,000 (roughly our present rate) and a Total Fertility Rate
of 1.865 (roughly what it is now) - our population will still be increasing
quite dramatically by 2050. So it will with 70,000 or 50,000 net migration.
With net migration of 100,000 or 70,000, we will have populations which
increase out to - and beyond - the year 2100. Through failure to implement a
population policy, we now have inevitable population increase to beyond what
were are regarded as desirable levels by a number of leading ecologists and
demographers. We need a rational debate in Australia about what we choose to
be our ultimate population.
The handling of population by the previous Government was less than
distinguished - partly because immigration was seen as a tremendously
important element in building up a long term political constituency. There
was that sense that you might get the Greek vote 'locked up', or the Chinese
vote 'locked up'. The issues of immigration/population have never been put
on the agenda of either the Premiers Conferences or the Council of
Australian Governments - despite the serious implications that these issues
have for the States.
Ours is not a vast, empty continent capable of unlimited use, of being the
food-bowl of Asia, or even of continuing agricultural production at the
present level. From the 'sustainably' usable perspective, Australia is a
small land, already over-populated and with its resources of soil and water
stretched to the limit. If our population is not capped now, Australia will
be unable to feed its own. It has no choice but to abandon its role as a
food exporter - that will inevitably be forced upon it by the land itself
over the next few decades.
Deliberate decisions about population through a population policy are a
vital element in a package of measures designed to move us towards a more
ecologically sustainable future.
Let us embrace a larger mission : to ensure the on-going evolution of life
on Earth, a process that has been so disrupted by the rapid growth in
numbers of our species.
Save by buying audio tape and printed speeches together. All prices include
postage to anywhere in Australia. Please allow 4-6 weeks for delivery.
AESP Conference Proceedings
Inquiries : Phone Gordon Hocking, AESP NSW, (02) 9528 6091
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR FRANK STILWELL
(Economics Department, University
of Sydney. For several years in the 1980s a member of Australia's National
Population Council. )
DR NEIL HAMILTON
(Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of
Technology, Sydney)
HON BARRY JONES AO MHR
(Chair, House of Reps Standing Committee for
Long Term Strategies' 1994 inquiry into Australia's population carrying
capacity.)
DR MARY E WHITE
(Palaeobotanist and author. Her latest book is 'Listen
..Our Land is Crying' , published by Kangaroo Press.)
JIM DOWNEY
(Executive Director, Australian Conservation Foundation
DR JOHN COULTER
(AESP National President)
ORDER FORM FOR AUDIO TAPE & CONFERENCE PAPERS
FOR AESP 1997 NATIONAL CONFERENCE 30 AUGUST 1997, SYDNEY
I would like to order -
[ ] (insert number) copies of the conference audio tape, at $15 each
[ ] (insert number) copies of the printed speeches, at $15 per set
[ ] (insert number) of audio tape/printed speech packages, at $25 each
I enclose a cheque/money order made out to 'AESP Inc. - NSW' for
$...........................
Please mail my order to :
............................................................................
............................................................................
.......................(State).................(Postcode) ................
Mail this form & your payment to :
11 Cook Road
OYSTER BAY NSW 2225