"... a vision of the past pointing the way to the future."
- Fenilab Report

STATE OF THE WORLD

SELECTED STATISTICS of the 1990's.


Compiled by Bob Whiteway for Australians for an Ecologically Sustainable Population from data released largely between 1990 and 1997 by the Worldwatch Institute, 1776 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington,DC.20036 - 1904 USA. Email: wwpub@worldwatch.org The institute's annual report State of the World is published by Norton & Co Lid NY, in 27 languages and widely used by Governments, United Nations agencies, universities and environmental groups throughout the world. Worldwatch also publishes other books, bi-monthly magazines and research papers.

Great Benefit ...
Great benefit can flow - to enterprises as much as to the family of nations - if decisions are shaped by awareness of the essential facts about the state of the world. Conversely, if they are ignored, the consequences could be appallingly painful ... be aware of the facts - or beware the sting!

AESP offers the following data for consideration and reference purposes in the spirit of contributing towards sensible, informed decision making. Reference sources are to be found at the end of the document.



ECONOMIC GROWTH:


People living through the post war period have witnessed an unprecedented bonanza of economic growth.

Between 1950 and 1995, as population doubled, world economic production grew by five times - from $4 trillion to $20 trillion. Lumber doubled but paper increased sixfold. Grain and meat production trebled - the same as water use. Seafood consumption quadrupled and so did the burning of fossil fuels. The level of output to which humans had aspired by 1950 - after two million years on Earth - was quintupled in just 45 years! This gigantic and historic achievement however, on no account points to a wise course for the future. The explosion of growth carries with it the seeds of its own demise - notably for two reasons:
First, the share of the wealth is becoming increasingly uneven. In 1960, the ratio of the share of the richest fifth of people on Earth to the poorest fifth was 30:1. In 1995, the ratio was 61:1(1). Therein lies a Pandora's Box of problems.
Second, the physical demands of economic output are pressing hard against the Earth's limited resource capacity, as the data below all too clearly indicate.


POPULATION GROWTH:


Humans may have already reached plague proportions, yet burgeoning numbers continue.

The growth of world population fell from 2% in 1970 to 1.6% in 1995, but because of the population momentum resulting from a large proportion of children coming on, the current volume of additions is the highest in history. World additions, by decade, are as follows:
'70s ...750m. '80s ...840m. '90s ...an estimated 960m.(2)
At 5.8 billion in 1997, world population is expected to double by the year 2050.

DESTRUCTION OF HUMAN DIVERSITY

Ironically, despite the massive increase in numbers, not all human groups are safe from extinction. As an example, an average of one Amazon tribe has disappeared each year since 1900.(3)

Nor is the population of all nations growing. Japan and 29 European countries have a growth rate at or about zero, the actual rates ranging between -0.6% (Russia) and +0.3% (Japan, France, Norway, et.al.(4)


FEEDING THE WORLD:


Despite the economic bonanza, and because of population growth, hunger on a global scale appears imminent.

Grain: Area: Cropland per person is expected to decrease by 1/6th during the '90s, yet 28m. tons of additional grain is needed each year to feed the extra mouths. (5) Grainland per person in 1950 was .23 Ha. By 1995 it had fallen to .12 Ha. - only about half as much (6). Between 1979 and 1995, per capita irrigated area fell as well - by 7% (7). Quantity: Since 1991, there has been no growth in world grain production at all, largely because crops cannot effectively use more fertiliser. Since in the same period, population rose by some 440 million, a per capita decrease had to occur (8). In fact, grain harvest per person fell by 10% between the mid 80's and the mid 90's (9).

Measured in days of global consumption, the world's carryover stocks of grain for 1996 fell to 49 days - the lowest on record. (70 - 80 days are required for even minimal safety)(10).

The prices of wheat and corn, the two biggest crops, doubled as a result of the scarcity of grain in '95/'96. Yet 1.2 billion people live on $1US per day. If 70c of that dollar is spent on food, a doubling of grain prices could be life threatening, with government-toppling political instability following in its wake(11). Related to this, the significant grain exporters are confined to six nations - Argentina, Australia, Thailand, France, Canada and the USA. With massive food deficits just over the horizon, great power will reside in the hands of these nations, particularly the US(12). It seems that food security may soon replace military security as the number one concern. Thus, stabilising population is becoming the critical factor for national security, particularly in developing nations. In turn, the education of women is the most critical factor in stabilising population.
Seafood: The world catch of seafood per person has not risen since 1970, and as population rises, the figure is headed downwards(13). In fact, world seafood catch per person declined by 8% between 1990 and 1995 (14). The volume of the oceanic catch topped out at 82m. tons in 1988 (15).

From 1974, seafood prices have more than trebled, directing this protein rich food source away from the developing countries where it is most needed (16). Land based and coastal aquaculture though, has recently expanded its contribution. In 1984, production was 6.5m. tons and rose to 13% of the world fish catch total by slating 13m. tons in 1991. The target for the year 2000 is 22m tons, but much of this will be at the expense of grain with which fish are fed, making the gains problematic.(17).
Carrying Capacity: With grain production nearing its outer limits, the Earth's food carrying capacity depends on how much of that grain is converted into meat for human consumption - the more meat is eaten, the lower the population which can be supported. The prospect of eating as the United States of America does is already an ecological impossibility because 70% of US grain (= 40% of world grain) is fed to US livestock - enough to nourish 5 times as many people as it does. The pounds of grain needed to produce one pound of (protein richer) meat is approximately as follows:
Pork - 6.9
Beef - 4.8
Chickens - 2.8
Eggs - 2.6
Fish - 2 (18)

Countries eat varying proportions of meat, but taking a cross section of the range of consumption habits, and using all available land, the outer limits of the Earth's food carrying capacity are approximately as follows: If we all ate like:
USA - 2.5 billion people
Italy - 5 billion people
India - 10 billion people

As countries develop, more meat is eaten, not less. Since 1950, world meat consumption per capita has doubled (19). Clearly, the populous will not willingly convert to the Indian diet - nor should it. Whilst the U.S. diet is protein over-rich, the Indian diet is protein poor. Italy's diet approximates to the recommended level. The present world population is 5.8 billion, which implies that it is undernourished. We can conclude therefore that as of 1997, the population of the Earth already exceeds its food carrying capacity by approximately 800 million people.


WATER


Once regarded as free and abundant, water is becoming scarce and may soon replace oil as the most precious liquid.

The one percent of the Earth's water which is fresh, is available as rivers, lakes and aquifers (underground water in porous rocks). Since the volume is fixed, each time the population doubles, the per capita supply is cut in half (20). Necessary for all life, 65% of human water requirements is used for food production - one ton of grain for example taking 1000 tons of water to grow (21). With the burgeoning demand for food, it is not surprising that water resources are being stretched - in many cases beyond sustainable limits.

Major rivers which now dry up or virtually dry up periodically before reaching their source include:

Often connected to this is the shrinking of inland waters, for example:

The draw-down rate of aquifers is also worrisome.

Vast fossil aquifers under the Libyan and Saudi deserts are being applied to agriculture in a practice which is destined to be unsustainable because fossil aquifers are not replenished (24). This is also largely true of the great Ogalalla aquifer in the Prairie states of the USA. The draw-down rate far exceeds that of recharge in this predominantly fossil aquifer, and already some farmers in the south have had to abandon irrigation. Underground supplies in the Punjab, Rajasthan and other southern Indian states are also being depleted by unsustainable irrigation. In N. China, parts of the water table have been lowered by 30 metres over the last two to three decades as urban and rural users vie for scarce supplies (25). Such depletion of water resources indicates that human demand already exceeds the sustainable level of supply. It also involves the deprivation of aquatic ecosystems, and the build up of pollutants in rivers, lakes and aquifers - upon which, along with the direct use of precipitation (rain, snow etc.), all life depends.


SOILS


Like some master magician, humans are effecting a virtual disappearing trick on soils.

Around the world, agriculture has eroded, compacted, contaminated, salted or waterlogged extensive tracts of cropland. Erosion is the worst culprit, accounting for 84% of degraded areas (26) and a loss of 66 m. tons of soil every day, or 24 b. tons a year. Salination (i.e. the salting up of soils so that they become too salty to grow food in) by comparison only affects about 10% of irrigated land - a relatively small area. Still, it is disproportionately important because of the higher yields of such lands (27). The calculation of the actual impact of all forms of soil degradation is necessarily complex, but according to a recent U.N. study, the bottom line is a whopping production loss of 18% (28) - enough to feed 900 million people (29).


FORESTS


As forests shrink, they take with them crucial services of nature.

Of the 6.2 billion hectares which originally covered the Planet, 4.2 billion remain - much of which is biologically inferior. In fact, only 1.5 billion hectares are untouched or 'primary'(30). If every person on Earth planted 10 trees each year - the equivalent of 24 million hectares - it would still take 83 years to restore the original forest cover (31). But almost the direct opposite is occurring - an area the size of Austria (about 17m. hectares) is being cut down annually. In addition to sustaining indigenous peoples, forests play a massively important role in stabilising the water cycle, the carbon cycle, and the soils of the Earth (32). They also house and support the richest source of biodiversity in the world.


EXTINCTION OF WILD SPECIES


With widespread extinctions around the world, unique and invaluable genetic stock is passing into oblivion.

According to Paul Ehrlich, humans use 40% of net primary production (the product of photosynthesis), leaving only 60% to be shared by the other 10 million or more land based species. Largely as a result of this, upward of 140 plant and animal species are being extinguished every day (33). Forest clearance is a big factor. As an example, an area 100 metres square (a hectare) of Peruvian forest can contain 41,000 species of insects, (more than a quarter of them beetiles). Studies in the Tambopata Wildlife Reserve of the Peruvian Amazon have indicated that four out of five insects are confined to one type of forest - and 13% to just one type of tree. Thus, it can readily be seen how forest clearance alone can generate very large numbers of extinctions. Unique and therefore invaluable genetic stock is passing into oblivion.

A selection of declining or threatened species includes: